The Dow Marches On

Since my June 13 post, I have been pleasantly surprised by the strength of the stock market. I had expected a mild summer rally, but thought it would have been weaker and be fading by now. Of course, I have been a little early in calling previous stock market tops. That is part of the reason that I have been selling only slowly into this market. I have now sold more than 25% of the portfolio that I held before March.

I remain convinced that we will see continued and substantial declines in residential real estate prices, commodity prices, and the yields on Treasury bonds.

The great asset run is over (for this cycle) and a recession is approaching. Soon the stock market should reflect this.