Thoughts on Macroeconomic Issues, Market Cycles and Investing. I am not selling anything here. My focus is managing my own investments. I am on the web to gather and discuss data and viewpoints. This site is mostly to document my views and forecasts. You are welcome to add your comments.
The bear market in real estate started last summer.
posted by zephyr @ 11:13 PM
5 comments
Investor and Retired Fortune 500 executive. Formal education in Economics and Investment Finance, with over 30 years of professional experience in the capital/financial services market, including more than 10 years as a CEO. Recently CEO of a financial services company with over $1 billion of invested financial assets. Privately, my investment focus is Real Estate, where my annual after-tax return on invested equity has averaged about 23% over the last 25 years.
5 Comments:
So then, what's a fella to do with his monthly savings - 6 month CD's ? T-bills? Pay down the mortgage balance? Keep dollar-cost-averaging into my mutual funds and maintaining my asset allocation - "stay the course" as they say?
I see real estate cycling down for ~ 2 years, but what about equities? I've no feel for that market.
What say you?
Zephyr,
You still going to make your 20% annualized returns this year?
Accross the board bloodbath.
I stayed diversified so I never could get near those 20%, but I did stay away from the precipice, but if I'm hurting, there must be some serious blood out there.
Where's the money running too?
I still have my prediction somewhere in cyberspace that the real stuff hits the fan sometime in Sept-Oct this year. (Unemployment from the housing bust: construction and loss in retail starts to hits the stats).
What are your current odds on a rate hike after June? You think the fed is going to put the nail in the asset bubble coffin, just to make sure?
--Fewlesh
In March I began slowly selling stock and reducing debt. I continue to sell incrementally, and soon I expect to move the cash into 10 year treasury bonds.
With the recent declines I am up only slightly for 2006. I expect to lose money this year and possibly next year. That’s ok, I will still have done great for this cycle.
I will load up again on real estate and stock at the next market bottoms.
it took me 2 years to understand that bear market has not at all started. just like you, i offloaded most my stocks thinking "the great run" was a myth. now i'm repenting.
I am not repenting.
So far I have sold about 20% of my stock. My portfolio has appreciated by about 9% so far this year. So I will probably make money this year after all.
However, I am concerned that the market will tumble soon, so I will continue to slowly sell.
I am happy to have reduced my debt, and the 10 year treasury bond prices have been rising. It's a good parking spot.
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