Tuesday, June 13, 2006

The Great Asset Run is Over

The bear market in real estate started last summer.

The bear market in stocks started last month.

The bear market in commodities seems to be upon us.

A recession is just around the corner (2007).

The great asset run is over.

5 Comments:

At June 14, 2006 1:41 AM, Anonymous Steve said...

So then, what's a fella to do with his monthly savings - 6 month CD's ? T-bills? Pay down the mortgage balance? Keep dollar-cost-averaging into my mutual funds and maintaining my asset allocation - "stay the course" as they say?

I see real estate cycling down for ~ 2 years, but what about equities? I've no feel for that market.

What say you?

 
At June 14, 2006 1:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Zephyr,

You still going to make your 20% annualized returns this year?

Accross the board bloodbath.

I stayed diversified so I never could get near those 20%, but I did stay away from the precipice, but if I'm hurting, there must be some serious blood out there.

Where's the money running too?

I still have my prediction somewhere in cyberspace that the real stuff hits the fan sometime in Sept-Oct this year. (Unemployment from the housing bust: construction and loss in retail starts to hits the stats).

What are your current odds on a rate hike after June? You think the fed is going to put the nail in the asset bubble coffin, just to make sure?

--Fewlesh

 
At June 15, 2006 12:27 AM, Anonymous Zephyr said...

In March I began slowly selling stock and reducing debt. I continue to sell incrementally, and soon I expect to move the cash into 10 year treasury bonds.

With the recent declines I am up only slightly for 2006. I expect to lose money this year and possibly next year. That’s ok, I will still have done great for this cycle.

I will load up again on real estate and stock at the next market bottoms.

 
At September 02, 2006 11:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

it took me 2 years to understand that bear market has not at all started. just like you, i offloaded most my stocks thinking "the great run" was a myth. now i'm repenting.

 
At September 02, 2006 3:58 PM, Blogger zephyr said...

I am not repenting.

So far I have sold about 20% of my stock. My portfolio has appreciated by about 9% so far this year. So I will probably make money this year after all.

However, I am concerned that the market will tumble soon, so I will continue to slowly sell.

I am happy to have reduced my debt, and the 10 year treasury bond prices have been rising. It's a good parking spot.

 

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