Saturday, June 07, 2008

Economy Now Over a Barrel

The price of oil has doubled in the last 12 months to almost $139 per barrel. The persistent high oil prices have become too much for the economy to overcome. This is a significant detriment to the previous outlook. It is a growing second wave of trouble that will sink/delay the recovery enabled by monetary policy.

I now expect the mild recession to deteriorate into a real recession. Unemployment will likely hit 6.5% by year end, and persist at a similar level into 2009. I expect a slow recovery.

Still waiting for the bottom with about 50% in cash.


At September 16, 2008 11:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Zephyr, still waiting for your comment. Do you have another blog? I'm intrested in hearing your opinion. thanks


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