Saturday, May 24, 2008

The Near-Recession is Almost Over

A mild recession or no recession – it is hard to tell. But job losses are easy to measure. And the economy is not growing fast enough to keep pace with population growth. So, on a per capita basis I say it is a recession.

I expect this mild recession to recover slowly (nearly flat and perhaps with a second dip). However, unemployment will continue to rise into 2009 as companies will be cautious about expanding their payrolls. The level of unemployment will be mild compared to past recessions, but people will squawk like it is something worse than ever.

This is a very mild recession. But we are now so spoiled that anything less than perfection gets people agitated. Americans have become so self indulgent and spoiled that any reduction of their wasteful gluttony is unacceptable.

Most Americans today have never experienced a difficult economic environment. Our worst years in recent decades are better than any of the best years from a generation ago.

Those who have never felt pain are the least tolerant of it.


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